Changing Israeli Demographics – Diluting the State’s Jewish Population

Proponents of the one-state solution are faced with daunting challenges. Yes, it would solve the halachic issue of a Jewish state before the messiah. (The number of Palestinians, Israeli Arabs and other non-Jews already today outnumber Jews between the river and the sea.) And it would offer an opportunity for Israelis and Palestinians to live in peace. But how do we know that such a state wouldn’t erupt into chaos as extremists with opposing visions use violence against each other? Would all Palestinians really be happy with all of the current 7.3 million Jews continuing to live in the country?

Let’s consider a different approach. What if the State of Israel were to welcome non-Jewish immigrants to their country, to the point where they (together with the current populations of Israeli Arabs and others who have citizenship) outnumber Jews?

How close are we to that happening?

As of 2022, Jews were 73.3% of the population, whereas Arabs were 21% and others were 5.7%. The “others” category increased markedly during 2022, going from 478,000 to 534,000. Most of these new non-Jews were among the 74,714 immigrants who entered the State of Israel during 2022, of which 60.9% came from Russia and 19.6% from Ukraine.

The diverse “others” group comprises those with Jewish ancestry but not recognized as Jewish under Jewish law, and non-Jewish family members of Jewish immigrants.  A large portion of this group hails from post-Soviet states. Ethnic Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, immigrants from the former Soviet Union, who were eligible to emigrate due to having, or being married to somebody who has, at least one Jewish grandparent and thus qualified for Israeli citizenship under the revised Law of Return. A number of these immigrants also belong to various ethnic groups from the Former Soviet Union such as Armenians, Georgians, Azeris, Uzbeks, Moldovans, Tatars, among others. Most of them are in the mainstream of Israel culture and are called “expanded Jewish population”.

This is all under the current Law of Return. If the citizenship were opened to other people – those from any part of the world seeking a job or a better life – many more would come and we could easily reach the point where the Jewish population is less than 50%.

One model of a developed country with an open door policy is the UAE. According to an estimate by the World Bank, the UAE’s population in 2020 was 9,890,400. Immigrants accounted for 88.52% while Emiratis made up the remaining 11.48%. This unique imbalance is due to the country’s exceptionally high net migration rate of 21.71, the world’s highest. The immigrants are largely from south Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.  They are not granted Emirati citizenship, but they are allowed to work. While Islam is the official religion, the government follows a policy of tolerance toward other religions and rarely interferes in the religious activities of non-Muslims.

Applying this approach to the State of Israel would help from the standpoint of Jewish law. But would it eventually solve the Palestinian issue? Palestinians could apply for citizenship too, and they would be evaluated on an individual basis to ensure that they have no history of violence. New citizens would be accepted on a merit basis rather than an ethnic basis.

Furthermore, it may be that extremist Palestinian groups are motivated to a violent approach because they see no other way to get equality. The Jewish majority enacts laws enshrining the State of Israel as a Jewish state. With a majority of non-Jews from around the world, this would no longer be the case. Then Palestinians too would feel that they can achieve citizenship and full rights in the land of their ancestors, without resorting to terror.